RiverPeak Wealth Monthly Update For October 2025

Global Market Overview – October 2025

How do you celebrate your company reaching a $5 trillion valuation? Well, as a friend of mine informed me over the weekend (with pictures for proof), if you’re NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, you go out for an afternoon pint in a hipster pub in Shoreditch, London! NVIDIA would now rank 6th on a list of global stock exchanges; bigger than every national market except the US, China, Japan, India and Hong Kong.

Part of the explanation was found in the other big tech companies Q3 earnings reports – Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon spent more than $110 billion between them in the three months to the end of September. A large chunk of that flows straight to NVIDIA; and with something like $500 billion of demand already booked for 2026, the spending doesn’t look like slowing.

That level of spending requires a pretty healthy bank balance, but with overall US earnings growing at more than 10% for the fourth consecutive quarter, there doesn’t seem to be an immediate issue with ability to spend.

Worries over private credit have been building a little, so it’s worth a reminder that the high-profile defaults of First Brands and Tricolour appear to have been dodgy-accounting-related, rather than a crack in the overall system. Of course, illiquid, low-visibility loans are likely to be where things do go wrong, but at the moment, we’re not seeing too much to stress about.   

Most of the questions we’re getting are about the upcoming UK Budget. And unfortunately, we have no answers or insight (nor does anyone else, despite the perma-headlines). We’d just note that paralysing the country’s financial decision-making for 2-3 months every year isn’t a particularly helpful thing to “get growth going”.

October Markets Wrap

Global equity markets posted strong gains in October, buoyed by optimism around artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, easing inflationary pressures, and central bank policy shifts. The S&P 500 rose 2%, led by mega-cap tech stocks, but Japan’s Nikkei 225 stole the show as it hit a record high following a leadership change and renewed fiscal stimulus. Indeed, the Asia region as a whole led the way, as Korea soared on the back of AI-related spending, plus corporate governance reforms. Emerging markets also rallied, with Latin America rebounding after Argentina’s midterm elections delivered a market-friendly outcome, following Javier Milei’s surprise victory.

Bond markets too had a positive month, which was led by the UK gilt market, as the Chancellor received a boost from softer inflation data that was released for September, providing optimism over further interest rate cuts. This was despite widely expected Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) downgrades on UK productivity, possibly restricting her choices in the forthcoming budget.

Corporate bond markets settled down, following an initial spike in yields fuelled by fears over a potential systemic issue in the sector, after two significant US borrowers defaulted, which proved unfounded.

Source: 7IM

Summary

Investors should try to focus on the fact that investing in the stock market over the long term, is a powerful tool to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth and on ensuring that they have an appropriate asset allocation for the level of risk with which they feel comfortable. A disciplined approach to asset allocation and identifying good active managers who can navigate these conditions successfully remains of the utmost importance.

October 2025

With thanks to Seven Investment Management LLP for their views and market thoughts. RiverPeak Wealth Limited