RiverPeak Wealth Monthly Update For August 2026

Global Market Overview – August 2026

Monthly Musings:

The ancient Greeks and Romans thought that the hot, humid weather throughout August was caused by Sirius – the “Dog Star” – being in the sky at the same time as the Sun. In reality, August heat owes more to "thermal lag" than to the Dog Star. The Earth slowly absorbs warmth during spring and summer, then releases it over the following months. It's why the sea is often warmer in October than during the summer holidays.

As we head into the final third of the year, there are a few economic and financial lags worth watching.

The first is the data centre spending lag. Right now, companies that build data centres – and the bits that go in them – are recording record sales and have backlogs of orders stretching years into the future. And the companies which are placing those orders, including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta etc. are also recording record sales.

The question many people are asking is: “What will happen when the orders dry up?” That’s a good question; but a better one is: “How long is the lag before orders are cancelled?”

It’s not an easy question to answer. It would mean huge, fast-growing tech businesses were downgrading their own future prospects. It would also mean that the billionaires running them would have to admit they were wrong. When does the commercial argument outweigh the billionaire’s ego? The lag could be a lot longer than people realise.

The second lag is food price inflation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected fertiliser supplies during the key growing period of 2026, with the effects of El Niño adding another curveball. We know pressure is building, but we don’t know by how much. By the time it reaches supermarket shelves, it’ll feel sudden. In reality, the causes will have been baked in months earlier.

The third lag relates to human health. Weight-loss drugs are now widely used and available across the developed world. Average BMI levels in the US are falling for the first time in decades.

The ripple effects are only just beginning. The first-order effects are obvious. For example, households with someone taking GLP-1 medication buy 5–6% less food, and spend around 10% less in restaurants, prompting food companies to pivot to smaller portions.

The next ripples are more complicated. Do GLP-1 users prefer lifting weights to cardio? Do they buy an entirely new wardrobe? Do they travel more or less?

We can’t predict when these lags will hit. But we can prepare to react – or not – when they do.

August Markets Wrap

Following a poor July, technology and AI related stocks rebounded in August, supported by strong earnings from some of the biggest spenders on AI. The Magnificent Seven companies, which had struggled throughout 2026, finally bounced back as concerns about capital expenditure eased following reports of strong AI demand and continued revenue growth.

These companies still dominate the US market, which returned around 3% in sterling terms following this positive earnings season. Emerging-market equities also benefited from the technology-related rally, with Taiwan adding 7% to an already stellar year. Elsewhere, despite a strong month for energy-related companies, the UK and Europe were held back by their relatively limited exposure to technology stocks, finishing the month broadly flat.

Bond markets struggled in August, although they remained in positive territory over the previous 12 months. Higher oil prices reignited inflation concerns and pushed government bond yields higher across the world’s major developed economies. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, met during the month but left interest rates unchanged.

The murky inflation outlook, combined with continued pressure on oil prices, led central banks to adopt a wait-and-see approach as they assessed the potential economic impact of disruption to energy markets. Rising yields weighed on longer-dated government bonds, while corporate bonds proved more resilient, supported by the strong corporate earnings season.

Summary

Investors should try to focus on the fact that investing in the stock market over the long term, is a powerful tool to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth and on ensuring that they have an appropriate asset allocation for the level of risk with which they feel comfortable. A disciplined approach to asset allocation and identifying good active managers who can navigate these conditions successfully remains of the utmost importance.

August 2026

Disclaimers

Investors should be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and that the price of the investments, and the income derived from them, may fall as well as rise and the amount realised may be less than the original sum invested.

The information contained in this document is believed to be reliable and accurate, but without further investigation cannot be warranted as to accuracy or completeness.  Some of the data has been supplied by third parties. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but RiverPeak Wealth Limited neither warrants, represents or guarantees the contents of the information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.

Nothing in this document should be construed as personal advice based on your circumstances. No news or research item is a personal recommendation to deal.

If you invest in currencies other than your own, changes in exchange rates may cause the value of the investments to fall or rise which could exaggerate any increase or decrease in the value of your holding.

The opinions expressed in this document are not necessarily the views held throughout RiverPeak Wealth Limited.

August 2026

With thanks to Seven Investment Management LLP for their views and market thoughts. RiverPeak Wealth Limited